Following three years of intensive research, we are pleased to present the results of UNWTO’s new long term forecast for international tourism – Tourism Towards
2030. We trust that the conclusions of this landmark report will assist UNWTO Members and all tourism stakeholders
n understanding changes and trends and formulating the appropriate policies and strategies to build a more
competitive and sustainable tourism sector The last six decades have seen extraordinary growth for tourism. In spite of the multiple changes and shocks –from
man-made crises, to natural disasters and economic crises,
from which the world is still recovering– tourism, although
vulnerable, has always bounced back, proving its resilience
and capacity to rebound.
The next two decades will be of sustained growth for
the tourism sector. International tourist arrivals are set to
increase by an average 43 million a year between 2010
and 2030.
At the projected pace of growth, we will surpass the 1 billion
mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, the
number is anticipated to reach 1.8 billion meaning that in
two decades’ time, 5 million people will cross international
borders for leisure, business or other purposes such as
visiting friends and family every day, besides the four times
as many tourists traveling domestically.
There will also be much change beyond the numbers.
Future arrivals will be spread more widely across the globe;
the share of international tourism to emerging economies
will surpass that to advanced ones, and many of the new
arrivals will be to destinations in Asia, Latin America, Central
and Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The future brings enormous opportunities for tourism to
take centre stage in the political and economic agenda,
seeking recognition for its contribution to economic growth
and development. It also brings added challenges and
responsibilities for our sector to take the lead in mitigating
its potential negative impacts on host communities and
the environment.
Tourism has evolved into a global phenomenon – one of the
most important economic sectors and social activities of our
time. Today, it contributes directly to 5% of the world’s GDP,
one in 12 jobs globally and is a major export sector for many
countries, both in the developing and developed world.
The next 20 years will be of continued growth for
the sector. They can also be years of leadership:
tourism leading economic growth, social progress and
environmental sustainability. To make this possible
we need to make tourism a priority in national policy
decisions, foster competitive and responsible business
models and practises and increase cooperation between
the public and private sectors.
Benjamin Franklin said “by failing to prepare, you are preparing
to fail”. Tourism Towards 2030 aims to help prepare us in the
most effective way to make the most out of the opportunities
for the tourism sector and take a leadership role in the path
towards fairer, stronger and more sustainable growth.
